Space Weather, Auroras, Solar Flares and CMEs

[Parsons]

Nice shot, Sol!

CME IMPACT, CHANCE OF STORMS: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field today at approximately 1645 UT (11:45 AM EST). This is the expected glancing blow from the CME produced by the X4.9-class solar flare of Feb. 25th. Polar geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible in the hours ahead. Stay tuned for updates.

X-FLARE! Long-lived sunspot AR1967 returned to the Earthside of the sun on Feb. 25th and promptly erupted, producing an X4.9-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of the year so far and one of the strongest of the current solar cycle. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the explosion hurling a loop of hot plasma away from the blast site:

Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked this material as it raced away from the sun, eventually forming a bright CME, pictured below.. Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME suggest an expansion velocity near 2000 km/s or 4.4 million mph. If such a fast-moving cloud did strike Earth, the resulting geomagnetic storms could be severe. However, because its trajectory is so far off the sun-Earth line, the CME will deliver a no more than a glancing blow.

[Parsons]

I find this is very interesting. The Carrington Event of 1859 is something I was aware of since I first gained interest in solar flares / CME's, and is in fact what increased my interest in their potential effects. When I first got into the phenomenon, it was just before I 'awoke' and was searching the internet for potential "end of the world" scenarios, with the front runner being a Carrington Event-level solar storm.

Based on what I have read about the event, if it were to happen in our modern day world of gadgetry and electricity, it would have devastating effects. Damage could range from destroying a few power transformers/grids and communication satellites, to destroying virtually all electrical grids and most satellites (if it were much worse than the Carrington Event). Considering nearly everything relies on electricity, I don't feel I need to go into detail about what it would do to the population of the world.

Over the years, I have come to a neutral point where I no longer welcome such an event, but I also accept whatever comes. I would actually have a slight bias towards not seeing such an event occur.

However, I know statistically, it is only a matter of time until the Earth is hit by a CME equally as powerful. It could be any day, or it may be in hundreds, or even thousands of years. Historically, it must have happened before there was any kind of science to measure solar flares and geomagnetic storms.

Finally, to the point of this post. It looks like we had another roughly equally powerful CME only 155 years after the Carrington Event which did not hit us:

SOLAR 'SUPERSTORM' NARROWLY MISSES EARTH: The heliophysics community is buzzing today in response to an article in Nature Communications, which describes an intense solar storm that narrowly missed Earth almost two years ago. On July 23, 2012, a CME rocketed away from the sun at 2000 km/s, almost four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit the STEREO-A spacecraft, which experienced the most intense solar proton storm since 1976. Researchers have been analyzing the data ever since, and they have concluded that the storm was akin to the Carrington Event of 1859. Scroll past this movie of the CME to learn more:



"Had it hit Earth, it probably would have been like the big one in 1859," says Janet Luhmann of UC Berkeley, a co-author of the paper. "The effect today [on] our modern technologies would have been tremendous."

The Carrington Event was a series of powerful CMEs that hit Earth head-on, sparking Northern Lights as far south as Tahiti. Intense geomagnetic storms caused global telegraph lines to spark, setting fire to some telegraph offices and disabling the 'Victorian Internet." A similar storm today would have a catastrophic effect on modern power grids and telecommunication networks. According to a study by the National Academy of Sciences, the total economic impact could exceed $2 trillion or 20 times greater than the costs of a Hurricane Katrina. Multi-ton transformers fried by such a storm could take years to repair.

The paper in Nature Communications describes what gave the July 2012 storm Carrington-like potency. For one thing, the CME was actually two CMEs separated by only 10 to 15 minutes. Plus the CMEs traveled through a region of space that had been cleared out by another CME four days earlier. As a result, they were not decelerated as much as usual by their transit through the interplanetary medium.

The storm clouds crossed Earth's orbit in a place where Earth itself would be about 1 week later, so it was a relatively narrow escape. The whole episode highlights the perils of space weather. Many observers have noted that the current solar cycle is weak, perhaps the weakest in 100 years. Now we see that even a weak solar cycle can produce a very strong storm. Earth is not safe from these kind of events, so it's time to be prepared.

The original research reported here may be found in Nature Communications: "Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections" by Ying D. Liu et al., published on March, 18, 2014.

[sunnysideup]

Wow!

[Parsons]

More info on the 2012 super storm straight from NASA:

[Parsons]

I have been monitoring solar/space weather for several years now. This is the largest sunspot I've ever seen (personally). It is few times larger than Earth:

{Click to enlarge}


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GROWING CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR2192 has grown even bigger, spreading across 1/3rd more solar terrain today than it did yesterday. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the expansion:



The chances of an explosion are growing along with the sunspot. On Oct. 20th, NOAA forecasters boosted the odds of an M-class flare to 60% and an X-flare to 20%.

Yesterday, the sunspot produced a long-duration X1-flare and a strong HF radio blackout over Asia and Australia. The next X-flare, if one occurs, will be even more geoeffective as the sunspot turns toward Earth.

If you have a solar telescope, now is a great time to look at the sun. AR2192 looks absolutely spectacular.

The effects of solar weather are always beautiful around this time of year (auroras are more frequent and stronger near the equinoxes):

[Parsons]

Wow... This sunspot got bigger. I made a do-it-yourself solar filter for my telescope just for this.

GIANT SUNSPOT CRACKLING WITH FLARES: AR2192 is the biggest sunspot in nearly 25 years, and it is still growing. The active region now covers 2750 millionths of the solar disk, an area equivalent to more than 16 planet Earths skinned and spread out flat. It is so large that sky watchers are seeing it with the naked eye when the sun is dimmed by low-hanging clouds or, in this case, dense fog:

Barry Freas took the picture on October 26th from Red Hill, Kentucky. "It was a very foggy morning," he says. "AR2192 was remarkable."

Big sunspots tend to produce strong flares, and AR2192 is no exception. It is crackling with magnetic activity. Since the active region appeared on Oct. 19th it has unleashed 5 X-flares and a dozen M-flares. The most intense of these flares have caused HF radio blackouts and other communication disturbances on the dayside of Earth.

Usually, strong flares are accompanied by massive CMEs--billion-ton clouds of electrified gas that billow away from the blast site. So far, however, none of the eruptions from AR2192 has produced a major CME. Without a series of CMEs to hit Earth and rattle our planet's magnetic field, there have been no geomagnetic storms nor any widespread auroras.

More eruptions are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of M-class flares and a 55% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

[Patrick]

Yes this period is intense. It seems to affect my brow chakra a lot. The pressure is intense. Even painful right now with the latest one that just happened today.

Maybe this is a mass download from the logos ?

[Parsons]

Wow, I almost fell out of my chair when I got to work today and checked spaceweather.com. There is by far the strongest geomagnetic storm I have ever seen since I started monitoring space weather about 4 years ago. Right now, the storm is at a G4 storm on a scale of up to G5. There WILL be some crazy awesome aurora pics in the following days. If you are in Norway or other northern European countries / Russia, there must be incredibly bright auroras right now.

CME IMPACT, SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT. At first, the impact sparked a relatively mild G1-class (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm. Since then, however, the storm has intensified to G4-class (Kp=8), ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. This storm is underway now. Before sunrise, bright auroras were sighted over several northern-tier US states including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas and Washington. Marketa Murray sends this picture from Dalton Highway in Alaska:



"The auroras were insane," says Marketa who regularly runs a photography workshop on the Arctic Circle. She has seen a lot of auroras. "I have never seen anything like this."

This storm could continue for many hours to come as Earth passes through the turbulent wake of the CME.

Real Time Aurora Gallery

[Ankh]

I write this with extreme sadness. I worked this night, and when I got home and checked my Facebook, I saw couple of my friends who reported that they have seen Aurora in Stockholm, despite the lights!!

Damn it! This is my biggest dream! I've never seen Northern Lights. And heck, to see it is not only my biggest dream, but is on my bucket list!

And I MISSED it!!

Anyways, here is a vid taken in Sweden, of Northern Lights:

[sunnysideup]

http://www.aurora-service.eu/aurora-forecast/

[Jade]

I'm very sad I live on the south side of the city, and subsequently the south side of a mountain. Also, it was very cloudy and foggy last night. Hopefully another time!

[Spaced]

I'd like to see some auroras. It was clear last night but I didn't see much. Then again I wasn't out very long (too many revelers in my neighbourhood last night )

[Parsons]

Sweet! I was starting to think the lander that landed on Comet 67P (Churyumov-Gerasimenko) was going to stay asleep, but it woke up!

Rosetta's lander Philae is out of hibernation!

The signals were received at ESA's European Space Operations Centre in Darmstadt at 22:28 CEST on 13 June. More than 300 data packets have been analysed by the teams at the Lander Control Center at the German Aerospace Center (DLR).

"Philae is doing very well: It has an operating temperature of -35ºC and has 24 Watts available," explains DLR Philae Project Manager Dr. Stephan Ulamec. "The lander is ready for operations."

For 85 seconds Philae "spoke" with its team on ground, via Rosetta, in the first contact since going into hibernation in November.

When analysing the status data it became clear that Philae also must have been awake earlier: "We have also received historical data - so far, however, the lander had not been able to contact us earlier."

Now the scientists are waiting for the next contact.  There are still more than 8000 data packets in Philae’s mass memory which will give the DLR team information on what happened to the lander in the past few days on Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko.

Philae shut down on 15 November 2014 at 1:15 CET after being in operation on the comet for about 60 hours. Since 12 March 2015 the communication unit on orbiter Rosetta was turned on to listen out for the lander.

http://blogs.esa.int/rosetta/2015/06/14/...bernation/

[Parsons]

PERSEID METEOR SHOWER--TONIGHT! (Wednesday / Thursday)

The annual Perseid meteor shower is underway. Dusty debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle is hitting the top of Earth's atmosphere at 59+ km/s (130,000 mph) and disintegrating in streaks of light that fly out of the constellation Perseus. On Tuesday morning, Kevin Lewis caught this Perseid streaking down the Milky Way over Cwyfan, Anglesey, UK:



"I was making a deep exposure of the galactic plane on August 11th when the meteor appeared," says Lewis.

Many more could appear tonight. Forecasters expect meteor rates to top 100 per hour on August 12-13 when Earth passes through the heart of Swift-Tuttle's debris stream. The best time to look, no matter where you live, is during the dark hours before dawn when the constellation Perseus is high in the sky. City lights will overwhelm many Perseids. For full effect, go to the countryside where a velvet-dark sky provides the backdrop for a fine display.

[Parsons]

This is really cool... I had never even heard of this phenomenon until now. It is extremely rare:

A RARE FORM OF AURORAS: A surprisingly strong G3-class geomagnetic storm erupted on Aug. 15th when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field. Two nights later, as the storm was subsiding, midnight sky watchers in North America witnessed a rare and beautiful form of aurora--a "proton arc." Paul Zizka photographed the phenomenon on Aug. 17th from Banff, Alberta:



"It was incredible," says Zizka. "The whitish pillar remained nearly stationary for over 30 minutes--enough time for a self-portrait."

In Val Marie, Saskatchewan, photographer Sherri Grant saw a purple proton arc cutting across the Milky Way. And in Oroville, Washington, at the Table Mountain Star Party, campers witnessed at least two more arcs.

Ordinary auroras are caused by electrons, which rain down on Earth's atmosphere from above. Atoms of oxygen and nitrogen, excited by the pitter-patter of electrons, form dynamic curtains of light. Protons have a different effect. For reasons not fully understood, protons normally trapped in our planet's ring current sometimes rain down on Earth's atmosphere during geomagnetic storms. En route, they excite a type of plasma wave called "EMIC"--short for electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. The result is not a curtain, but rather a tight arc of light as shown above.

Many of the photographers who witnessed proton arcs on Aug. 17th have been observing auroras for years, yet they had never seen this phenomenon before. Geomagnetic storms still have the capacity to surprise!

[Parsons]

If you're reading this within 30 minutes of me posting this and you are in North / South America or Western Europe / Africa, go outside and look to the East (for America) or West (for Europe / Africa) to see a Lunar Eclipse / Blood Moon.

[tamaryn]

Saw it and I sneaked outside from work too,

As the moon was eclipsing, you could see a rainbow streaked aura, kind of the shape of a feather, where the White of the moon and the Darkness of the other side met. And the Moon was mostly blood red and White/Black/Gray.

[Parsons]

And here's the stunning results:





{Click image for panoramic photo}

[AnthroHeart]

Beautiful Parsons

[AnthroHeart]

Whatever happened to that X-Wave that was supposed to ascend us?

I have felt a little more energetic lately, because I'm focused on that.

[Parsons]

This is a theory I've had for years. I'm interested to see it getting some traction:

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientist-cl...-in-humans

[AnthroHeart]

Parsons, have you seen the movie "Knowing"? It has a serious solar flare at the end.

You might like it.

[Parsons]

Yeah, haven't seen that movie in a long time. Might have to rewatch

[ada]

This is a theory I've had for years. I'm interested to see it getting some traction:

http://www.sciencealert.com/scientist-cl...-in-humans

I believe it should be possible to sense/see those waves with a certain focus. Not in colors though rather very transparent. Try looking at a clear day sky and let your vision adapt anything unnoticable.

[Spaced]

Looks like the Earth will be enveloped in a big gust of solar wind for the next few days, high chance of G-1 geomagnetic storms, all courtesy of this big canyon shaped sun spot:



http://spaceweather.com/