(01-03-2013, 02:48 PM)βαθμιαίος Wrote: Thinking about this some more.
Assuming Ra meant 20 degrees east of north as measured from Louisville, KY, and assuming that means that the pole will move roughly 20 times the distance of one degree at Louisville, which is 54.27 miles per the formula given here: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_miles...r_latitude and the latitude for Louisville given here: http://www.travelmath.com/cities/Louisville,+KY
That means the pole needs to move 20 x 54.27 = 1085.40 miles. Ra spoke in 1981. Since then, it's moved 9 MPY for 8 years (the article says it moved 9MPY from 1904 to 1989), which gives 72 miles, something more than that from 1989 - 2007 (est. 15 MPY x 18 Y = 270 miles), and ~35 MPY since 2007 (= ~175 mi). So since 1981 it's moved roughly 72 + 270 + 175 = 517 miles, leaving ~568 to go.
Hello, thank you! That is a nice piece of analysis. Gets one thinking.
I thought, probably, this picture too would be helpful in this analysis --
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AxialT...iquity.png
In terms of a timeline, this is useful, which matches with the calculations you have made (in my humble uneducated opinion ) --
North magnetic pole heading for Siberia,
Alaska might lose its Northern Lights in 50 years, scientists say
The following is a quote from the above cited article
Quote:Earth’s north magnetic pole is drifting away from North America and toward Siberia at such a clip that Alaska might lose its spectacular Northern Lights in the next 50 years, scientists said Thursday.
The article is dated December 2005.